2027 Showdown: Can Makinde Break Oyo’s 24-Year Jinx of Failed Political Succession?

Oyo State politics has evolved what many now describe as an unwritten but stubbornly consistent doctrine: no sitting governor has successfully installed a handpicked successor. From the era of Alhaji Lam Adesina to Adebayo Alao-Akala, from the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi to the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde, the pattern has remained remarkably intact.

This is not accidental. It reflects the fiercely independent, competitive, and often unpredictable political culture of the Pace Setter State.

LAM ADESINA ERA (1999–2003)

Alhaji Lam Adesina of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) governed during the early years of the Fourth Republic. But in 2003, the political climate shifted dramatically. The sweeping PDP wave across the Southwest unseated him, as Rasheed Ladoja emerged victorious.

Rather than consolidating his structure into continuity, Adesina’s political dominance was interrupted. Power did not remain within his fold. The pattern had begun.

LADOJA TO ALAO-AKALA

Rasheed Ladoja’s tenure was turbulent, defined by impeachment drama and intense intra-party crisis. His deputy, Adebayo Alao-Akala, rose to power through political upheaval, not strategic succession planning.

When Akala sought to sustain his grip in 2011, the electorate charted a different course. He lost to Abiola Ajimobi of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Once again, continuity proved elusive.

THE AJIMOBI EXPERIENCE (2011–2019)

Senator Abiola Ajimobi broke one major barrier by becoming the first governor in Oyo State to win re-election in 2015. That achievement alone cemented his place in history.

However, the greater test came in 2019. Despite incumbency strength, party structure, and political influence, he was unable to deliver the governorship seat to a preferred successor. The APC lost to Seyi Makinde of the PDP, reinforcing the long-standing resistance to perceived imposition.

THE MAKINDE QUESTION (2019–Present)

Governor Seyi Makinde is today one of the most influential political figures in Oyo State. He commands party loyalty, enjoys visible grassroots engagement, and maintains significant administrative control.

Yet, history casts a long and cautionary shadow.

Will Makinde become the first governor to rewrite this political script? Or will Oyo’s tradition of electoral independence assert itself once more?

The ambitions already visible within the PDP — from trusted insiders to grassroots mobilisers — suggest that 2027 will not simply be about endorsement. It will be about negotiation, alliance-building, zoning considerations, and stakeholder consensus.

WHY THIS PATTERN PERSISTS 

Several structural realities explain this enduring trend:

• Deep-rooted intra-party rivalries

• Strong zonal consciousness (Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun, Ibarapa, Oyo)

• Political resistance to imposed candidacies

• An informed, vocal, and assertive electorate

Oyo voters have consistently demonstrated that admiration for an outgoing governor does not automatically translate into support for his preferred successor.

In Oyo State, power must be earned — not transferred by proclamation.

FINAL REFLECTION 

If Governor Makinde succeeds in installing his chosen successor in 2027, it will mark a historic political turning point in the state’s democratic journey.

If he does not, Oyo will simply reaffirm what has become its political identity — a state that guards its electoral independence with determination.

Will Governor Makinde change the narration?

History is watching.

2027 will not merely be an election year — it will be a referendum on Oyo’s unwritten political law.

Segun Akinlabi writes from Ibadan. segunoakinlabi@gmail.com